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    国际贸易第1章(经济全球化英文版)

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    国际贸易第1章(经济全球化英文版

    International Trade Chapter I. Globalization LEARNING OBJECTIVES After you have read this chapter you should: LO1 Understand what is meant by the term globalization. LO2 Be familiar with the main drivers of globalization. LO3 Appreciate the changing nature of the global economy. LO4 Understand the main arguments in the debate over the impact of globalization. LO5 Appreciate have the process of globalization is creating opportunities and challenges far business managers. Flat Panel Televisions and the Global Economy They begin as glass panels that are manufactured in high-technology fabrication centers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. ~ 1 ~



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    Operating sophisticated tooling in environments that must be kept absolutely clean, these factories produce sheets of glass twice as large as king size beds to exacting specifications. From there, the glass panels travel to Mexican plants located alongside the border. There they are cut to size, combined with electronic components shipped in from Asia and the United States, assembled into finished TVs, and loaded onto trucks bound for retail stores in the United States. It’s a huge business. In 2006, consumers spent some $ billion on flat panel TVs, a 63 percent increase over the amount spent in 2005. Projections call for sales to hit $37 billion by 2008-despite the fact that due to intense competition, prices for flat panel displays have been tumbling and are projected to continue doing so. During 2006 alone, prices for 40-inch flat panel TVs fell from $3,000 to $1,600, bringing --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    them within the reach of many more consumers. In 200? half of all TVs sold in the United States will be flat panel TVs. The underlying technology for flat panel displays was invented in the United States in the late 1960s by RCA. But after RCA and rivals Westinghouse and Xerox opted not to pursue the technology, the Japanese company Sharp made aggressive investments in flat panel displays. By the early 1990s Sharp was selling the first flat panel screens, but as the Japanese economy plunged into a decade-long recession, investment leadership shifted to South Korean companies such as Samsung. Then the 1997 Asian crisis hit Korea hard, and Taiwanese companies seized leadership. Today, Chinese companies are starting to elbow their way into the flat panel display manufacturing business. As production for flat panel displays migrates its way around the
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    low-cost locations, clear winners and losers have emerged. One obvious winner has been U. S. consumers, who have benefited from the falling prices of flat panel TVs and are snapping them up Other winners include efficient manufacturers who have taken advantage of globally dispersed supply chains to make and sell low-cost, high-quality flat panel TVs. Foremost among these has been the California-based company, Vizio. Founded by a Taiwanese immigrant, in just four years sales of Vizio flat panel TVs ballooned from nothing to $700 million in 2006. The company is forecasting sales as high as $2 billion for 2007. Vizio, however, has only 75 employees. These employees focus on final product design, sales. and customer service, while Vizio outsources most of its engineering work, all of its manufacturing, and much of its logistics. For each of its models, Vizio assembles a --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    team of supplier partners strung across the globe. Its 42-inch flat panel TV, for example, contains a panel from South Korea, electronic components from China, and processors from the United States, and it is assembled in Mexico. Vizio’s managers scour the globe continually for the cheapest manufacturers of flat panel displays and electronic components. They sell most of their TVs to large discount retailers such as Costco and Sam’s Club. Good order visibility from retailers, coupled with tight management of global logistics, allows Vizio to turn over its inventory every three weeks, twice as fast as many of its competitors which is a major source of cost saving in a business where prices are falling continually. If Vizio exemplifies the winners in this global industry, the losers include the employees of manufacturers who make traditional cathode ray TVs in high-cost --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    locations. In 2006, for example, Japanese electronics manufacturer Sanyo laid off 300 employees at its factory, and another Japanese company, Hitachi, closed its TV manufacturing plant in South Carolina, laying off 200 employees. Both Sony and Hitachi, of course, still make TVs, but they are flat panel TVs assembled in Mexico from components manufactured in Asia. Introduction A fundamental shift is occurring, in the world economy. We are moving away from a world in which national economies were relatively self-contained entities, isolated from each other by barriers to cross-border trade and investment; by distance, time zones, and language; ard by national differences in government regulation, culture, and business systems. And we are moving toward a world in which harriers to cross-border trade and investment are declining; perceived distance is shrinking, --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    due to advances in transportation and telecommunications technology; material culture is starting to look similar the world over; and national economies are merging into an interdependent, integrated global economic system. The process by which this is occurring is commonly referred to as globalization. What is happening, in the fiat panel TV Industry, which was profiled in the Opening Case, is a classic illustration of the impact of globalization. Production of flat panel TVs is migrating around the globe to low-cost locations. TVs that Vizio sells in the United States, for example, ale assembled in Mexico from flat panels manufactured in South Korea, electronic components made in China, and microprocessors made in the United States. By dispersing different activities around the globe to where they can be performed most efficiently, and then coordinating, the entire production --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    process, companies like Vizio can deliver flat panel TVs to American consumers at much lower prices than would otherwise be possible. American consumers benefit from the lower price, as doe; Vizio and its strategic partners in South Korea, China, the United States. and Mexico. The process of globalization also has losers, however, and the losers in this case are workers in high cost locations who have lost their jobs. As we will see in this book

    whether globalization benefits or harms national economies. We will look at what economic theory has to say about the outsourcing of manufacturing and service jobs to places such as India and China and at the benefits and costs of outsourcing, not just to business firms and their employees, but also to entire economies. First, though, we --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    need to get a better overview of the nature and process o f globalization, and that is the function of the current chapter. What Is Globalization? As used in this book, globalization refers to the shift toward a more integrated and interdependent world economy. Globalization has several facets, including the globalization of markets and the globalization of production.
    THE GLOBALIZATION OF MARKETS The globalization of markets refers to the merging of historically distinct and separate national markets into one huge global marketplace. Falling barriers to cross-border trade have made it easier to sell internationally. It has been argued for some time that the tastes and preferences o f consumers in different nations are beginning to converge on some global norm, thereby helping to create a global market. Consumer products such as --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Citigroup credit cards, Coca-Cola soft drinks. Sony PlayStation video games, McDonald’s hamburgers, Starbucks coffee, and IKEA furniture are frequently identified as prototypical examples of this trend. Firms such as these are more than just benefactors of this trend: they are also facilitators of it. By offering the same basic product worldwide, they help to create a global market. A company does not have to be the size of these multinational giants to facilitate and benefit from the globalization of markets. In the United States, for example, nearly 90 percent of firms that export are small businesses employing less than 100 people, and their share of total US exports has grown steadily over the last decade to now exceed 20 percent. Firms with less than 500 employees accounted for 97 percent of all US exporters and almost 30 percent of all exports by value. Typical of these is --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Hytech, a New York based manufacturer of solar panels that generates 40 percent of its $3 million in annual sales from exports to five countries, or B&S Aircraft Alloys, another New York company whose exports account for 40 percent of its $8 million annual revenues. The situation is similar in several other nations. In Germany, for example, which is the world’s largest exporter, a staggering 98 percent of small and mid-sized companies have exposure to international markets, either via exports or international production. Despite the global prevalence of Citigroup credit cards, McDonald’s hamburgers, Starbucks coffee, and IKEA stores, it is important not to push too far the view that national markets are giving way to the global market. As we shall see in later chapters, significant differences still exist among national markets along many relevant dimensions, including consumer --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    tastes and preferences, distribution channels, culturally embedded value systems, business systems, and legal regulations. These differences frequently require companies to customize marketing strategies, product features, and operating practices to best match conditions in a particular country. The most global markets currently are not markets for consumer products-where national differences in tastes and preferences are still often important enough to act as a brake on globalization-but markets for industrial goods and materials that serve a universal need the world over. These include the markets for commodities such as aluminum, oil, and wheat. For industrial products such as microprocessors, DRAMs(computer memory chips, and commercial jet aircraft, for computer software, and for financial assets from US. Treasury bills to --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Eurobonds and futures and
    futures on the Nikkei index or the Mexican peso. In many global markets, the same firms frequently confront each other as competitors in nation after nation. Coca-Coca’s rivalry with PepsiCo is a global one, as are the rivalries between General Motors and Toyota, Boeing and Airbus, Caterpillar and Komatsu in earthmoving equipment, and Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft in video games. If a film moves into a nation not currently serves by its rivals, many of those rivals are sure to follow to prevent their competitor from gaining an advantage. As firms follow each other around the world, they bring with them many of the assets that served them well in other national markets-including their products, operating strategies, marketing strategies, and brand names-creating some homogeneity across --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    markets. Thus, greater uniformity replaces diversity. In an increasing number of industries, it is no longer meaningful to talk about the German market, the American market the Brazilian market, or the Japanese market, for many firms there is only the global market. THE GLOBALIZATION OF PRODUCTION The globalization of production refers to the sourcing of goods and services from locations around the globe to take advantage of national differences in the cost and quality of factors of production (such as labor, energy, land, and capital. By doing this, companies hope to lower their overall cost structure or improve the quality or functionality of their product offering, thereby allowing them to compete more effectively. Consider the Boeing 777, a commercial jet airliner. Eight Japanese suppliers make parts for the fuselage, doors and wings, a supplier in --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Singapore makes the doors for the nose landing gear, three suppliers in Italy manufacture wing flaps, and so on. In total, some 30 percent of the 777, by value, is built by foreign companies. For its most recent jet airliner, the 787 Boeing has pushed this trend even further, with some 65 percent of the total value of the aircraft scheduled to be outsourced to foreign companies, 35percent of which will go to three major Japanese companies. Part of Boeing’s rationale for outsourcing so much production to foreign suppliers is that these suppliers are the best in the world at their particular activity. A global web of suppliers yields a better final product, which enhances the chances of Boeing winning a greater share of total orders for aircraft than its global rival Airbus Industries. Boeing also outsources some production to foreign countries to increase the chance that it will win --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    significant orders from airline based in that country. For another example of a global web of activities, consider

    again the example of Vizio given in the Opening Case. Vizio, an American company with just 75 employees, has become one of the largest sellers of flat panel TVs in the United States in just four years by coordinating a global web of activities, bringing together components manufactured in South Korea, China and the United States, arranging for their assembly in Mexico, and then selling them in the United States. Early outsourcing efforts were primarily confined to manufacturing activities, such as those undertaken by Boeing and Vizio, increasingly, however, companies are taking advantage of modern communications technology, particularly the Internet, to outsource service activities --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    to low-cost producers in other nations. Many software companies, including IBM, now use Indian engineers to perform maintenance functions on software designed in the United States. The time difference allows Indian engineers to run debugging tests on software written in the United States when US engineers sleep, and the corrected code is transmitted back to the United States over secure Internet connections so it is ready for us engineers to work on the following day. Dispersing value-creation activities in this way can compress the time and lower the costs required to develop new software programs. Other companies, from computer makes to banks, are outsourcing customer service functions, such as customer call centers, to developing nations where labor is cheaper. Robert Reich, who served as secretary of labor in the Clinton administration, has --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    argued that as a consequence of the trend exemplified by companies such as Boeing, IBM, and Vizio, in many cases it is becoming irrelevant to talk about American products, Japanese products, German products, or Korean products. Increasingly, according to Reich, outsourcing productive activities to different suppliers’ results in the creation of products that are global in nature, that is global products, but as with the globalization of markers, companies must be careful not to push the globalization of production too far. As we will see in later chapters, substantial impediments still make it difficult for firms to achieve the optimal dispersion of their productive activities to locations around the globe. These impediments include formal and informal barriers to trade between countries, barriers to foreign direct investment, transportation costs, and issues --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    associated with economic and political risk. For example, government regulations ultimately limit the ability of hospitals to outsource the process of interpreting MRI scans to developing nations where radiologists are cheaper. Nevertheless, the globalization of markets and production will continue. Modern firms are important actors in this trend, their very actions fostering increased globalization. These firms, however, are merely responding in an efficient manner to changing conditions in their operating environment-as well they should. The Emergence of Global Institutions As markets globalize and an increasing proportion of business activity transcends national borders, institutions are needed to help manage, regulate, and police the global marketplace and to promote the establishment of multinational treaties to govern the global business system. Over --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    the past half century, a number of important global institutions have been created to help perform these functions, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade(GATT and its successor, the World Trade Organization(WTO,the International Monetary Fund(IMF and its sister institution, the World Bank and the United Nations. All these institutions were created by voluntary agreement between individual nation-states, and their functions are enshrined in international treaties. The World Trade Organization(like the GATT before it is primarily responsible for policing the world trading system and making sure nation-states adhere to the rules laid down in trade treaties signed by WTO member states. As of 2007,150 nations that collectively accounted for 97 percent of world trade were WTO members, thereby --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    giving the organization enormous scope and influence. The WTO is also responsible for facilitating the establishment of additional multinational agreements between WTO member states. Over its entire history, and that of the GATT before it, the WTO has promoted lowering barriers to cross-border trade and investment. In doing so, the WTO has been the instrument of its member states, which have sought to create a more open global business system unencumbered by barriers to trade and investment between countries. Without an institution such as the WTO, the globalization of markets and production is unlikely to have proceeded as far as it has. However, as we shall see in this chapter and in Chapter 6 when we look closely at the WTO, critics charge that the organization is usurping the national sovereignty of individual nation-states. The International --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Monetary Fund and the World Bank were both created in 1944 by 44 nations that met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The IMF was established to maintain order in the international monetary system; the World Bank was set up to promote economic development. In the 65 years since their creation, both institutions have emerged as significant players in the global economy. The World Bank is the less controversial of the two sister institutions. It has focused on making low-interest loans to cash-strapped governments in poor nations that wish to undertake significant infrastructure investments (such as building dams or roads. The IMF is often seen as the lender of last resort to nation-states whose economic are in turmoil and currencies are losing value against those of other nations. Repeatedly during the past decade, for example, the IMF has lent money to the --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    governments of troubled states, including Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. IMF loans come with strings attached, however, in return for loans, the IMF requires nation-states to adopt specific economic policies at returning their troubled economies to stability and growth. These requirements have sparked controversy. Some critics charge that the IMF’s policy recommendations are often inappropriate, others maintain that by telling national governments what economic policies they must adopt the IMF, like the WTO, is usurping the sovereignty of nation-states. We shall look at the debate over the role of the IMF in Chapter 10. The United Nations was established October 24 1945 by 51 countries committed to preserving peace through international cooperation and collective security. Today nearly every nation in the
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    international phone call is rapidly plummeting toward just a few cents per minute. The Internet and World Wide Web The rapid growth of the World Wide Web is the latest expression of this development. In 1990, fewer than 1 million users were connected to the Internet. By 1995, the figure had risen to 50 million. By 2006, the Internet had 747 million users. The WWW has developed into the information backbone of the global economy. In the alone, some $250 billion of goods and services are expected to be sold online to retail customers in 2007, up from almost nothing in 1997. Viewed globally, the Web is emerging as an equalizer. It rolls back some of the constraints of location scale, and time zones. The Web makes it much --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    easier for buyers and sellers to find each other, wherever they may be located global presence at a lower cost than ever before. Transportation technology In addition to developments in communication technology, several major innovations in transportation technology have occurred since World War Ⅱ. In economic terms, the most important are probably the development of commercial jet aircraft and super freighters and introduction of containerization, which simplifies transshipment from one mode of transport to another. The advent of commercial jet travel, by reducing the time needed to get from one location to another, has effectively shrunk the globe. In terms of travel time, New York is now “closer” to Tokyo than it was to Philadelphia in the Colonial days. Containerization has revolutionized the transportation business, significantly lowering the cost of shipping --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    goods over long distances. Before the advent of containerization, moving goods from one mode of transport to another was vary labor intensive, lengthy, and costly. It could take days and several hundred longshoremen to unload a ship and reload goods onto trucks and trains. With the advent of widespread containerization in the 1970s and 1980s, the whole process can now be executed by a handful of longshoremen in a couple of days. Since 1980, the world’s containership fleet has more than quadrupled, reflecting in part the growing volume of international trade and in part the switch to this mode of transportation. As a result of the efficiency gains associated with containerization, transportation costs have plummeted, making it much more economical to ship goods around the globe, thereby helping to drive the globalization of markets and productions. Between 1920 and 1990, the --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    average ocean freight and port charges per ton of export and import cargo fell from $95 to $29(in 1990 dollar. The cost of shipping freight per ton-mile on railroads in the United State fell from cents in 1985 to cents in 2000, largely as a result of efficiency gains from the widespread use of containers. An increased share of cargo now goes by air. Between 1955 and 1999, average air transportation revenue per ton-kilometer fell by more than 80 percent. Reflecting the falling cost of airfreight, by the early 2000s air shipments accounted for 28 percent of the value of trade, up from 7 percent in 1965. Implications for the Globalization of Production As transportation costs associated with the globalization of production declined, dispersal of production to geographically separate locations become more economical. As a result of the technological innovations --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    discussed above, the real costs of information processing and communication have fallen dramatically in the past two decades. These developments make it possible for a firm to create and then manage a globally dispersed production system, further facilitating the globalization of production. A worldwide communications network has become essential for many international businesses. For example, Dell uses the Internet to coordinate and control a globally dispersed production system to such an extent that it holds only three days’ worth of inventory at its assembly location. Dell’s Internet-based system records orders for computer equipment as they are submitted by customers via the company’s Web site, then immediately transmits the resulting orders for components to various suppliers around the world, which have a real-time look at Dell’s order flow and can adjust --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    their production schedules accordingly. Given the low cost of airfreight, Dell can use air transportation to speed up the delivery of critical components to meet unanticipated demand shifts without delaying the shipment of final product to customers. Dell also has used modern communications technology to outsource its customer service operations to India. When customers call Dell with a service inquiry, they are routed to Bangalore in India, where English-speaking service personnel handle the call. The Internet has been a major force facilitating international trade in services. It is the Web that allows hospitals in Chicago to send MRI scans to India for analysis, accounting offices in San Francisco to outsource routine tax preparation work to accountants living in the Philippines, and software testers in India to debug code written by developers in Redmond, --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Washington, the headquarters of Microsoft. We are probably still in the early stages of this development. As Moore’s Law continues to advance and telecommunications bandwidth continues to increase, almost any work processes that can be digitalized will be, and this will allow that work to be performed wherever in the world it is most efficient and effective to do so. The development of commercial jet aircraft has also helped knit together the worldwide operations of many international businesses. Using jet travel, an American manager need spend a day at most traveling to his or her firm’s Europe or Asian operations. This enables the manager to oversee a globally dispersed production system. Implications for the Globalization of Markets In addition to the globalization of production, technological innovations have also facilitated the --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    globalization of markets. Low-cost global communications network such as the World Wide Web are helping to create electronic global marketplaces. As noted above, low-cost transportation has made shipping products around the world more economical, thereby helping to create global markets. For example, due to the tumbling costs of shipping goods by air, roses grown in Ecuador can be sold in New York two days later while they still fresh. This has given rise to an industry in

    Ecuador that did not exist 20 years ago and that now supplies a global market for roses. In addition, low-cost jet travel has resulted in the mass movement of people between countries. This has reduced the cultural distance between countries and is bringing about some convergence of customer tastes and preferences. At the same time, global --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    communication networks and global media are creating a worldwide culture. Many countries now receive television networks such as CNN, MTV, and HBO, and Hollywood films are shown the world over. In any society, the media are primary conveyors of culture; as global media develop, we must expect the evolution of something akin to a global culture. A logical result of this evolution is the emergency of global markets for consumer products. The first signs of this are already apparent. It is now as easy to find a McDonald’s restaurant in Tokyo as it is in New York, to buy an iPod in Rio as it is in Berlin, and to buy Gap jeans in Paris as it is in San Francisco. Despite these trends, we must be careful not to overemphasize their importance. While modern communication and transportation technologies are ushering in the “global village,” significant national differences --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    remain in culture, customer preference, and business practices. A firm that ignores differences between countries does so at its peril. We shall stress this point repeatedly throughout this book and elaborate on it in later chapters. The Changing Demographics of the Global Economy Hand in hand with the trend toward globalization has been a fairly dramatic change in the demographics of the global economy over the past 30 years. As late as the 1960s, four trends described the demographics of the global economy. The first was dominance in the world economic and world trade picture. The second was dominance in world foreign direct investment. Related to this, the third fact was the dominance of large, multinational firms on the international business scene. The fourth was that roughly half the globe－the centrally planned economies of the --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    Communist world－were off-limits to Western international businesses. As will be explained below, all four of these qualities either have changed or are now changing rapidly. THE CHANGING WORLD OUTPUT AND WORLD TRADE PICTURE In the early 1960s, the United States was still by far the world’s dominant industrial power. In 1963 the United States accounted for percent of world economic activity, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP. By 2006, the United States accounted for percent of the world GDP, still the world’s largest industrial power but down significantly in relative size since the 1960s (see Table . Nor was the United States the only developed nation to see its relative standing ship. The same occurred to Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, all nations that were among the first to industrialize. This --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    change in the position was not an absolute decline, since the economy grew at a robust average annual rate of more than 3 percent from 1963 to 2006(the economies of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom also grew during this time. Rather, it was a relative decline, reflecting the faster economic growth of several other economies, particularly in Asia. For example, as can be seen from Table , from 1963 to 2006, China’s share of world GDP increased from a trivial amount to percent. Other counties/regions that markedly increased their share of world output included Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea (note that GDP data in Table are based on purchasing power parity figures, which adjust the value of the GDP to reflect the cost of living in various economies. By the end of the 1980s, the position as the world’s leading --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    exporter was the past 30 years, dominance in export markets has waned as Japan, Germany, and a number of newly industrialized countries such as South Korea and China have taken a large share of world exports. During the 1960s, the United States routinely accounted for 20 percent of world exports of manufactured goods. But as Table shows, the share of world exports of goods and services had slipped to percent by 2006. Despite the fall, the United States still remained the world’s largest exporter, ahead of Germany, Japan, France, and the fast-rising economic power, China. If China’s rapid rise continues, however, it could soon overtake the as the world’s largest economy and largest exporter. country Share of the Share of World Share of World World GDP ,2006 Exports,2006 Output ,1963 United States % % % Germany France Italy United

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    Kingdom Canada Japan China NA TABLE The ChanginDemographics of World GDP anTrade Sources: IMF, WoEconomic Outlook, Ap2007. Data for 1963 from N. Hood and Young, The Economof the Multinationenterprise. TGDP data are based a As emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil continue to grow, a further relative decline in the share of world output and world exports accounted for by the United States and other long-established developed nations seems likely. By itself, this is not bad. The relative decline of the United States reflects the growing economic development and industrialization of the world economy, as opposed to any absolute decline in the health of the economy, which by measures is stronger than ever. Most forecasts now predict a rapid rise in the share of world output --------------------精选公文范文，管理类，工作总结类，工作计划类文档，感谢阅读下载---------------------

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    accounted for by developing nations such as China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Mexico, and Brazil and a commensurate decline in the share enjoyed by rich industrialized countries such as Great Britain, Germany, Japan, and the United States. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy could be larger than that of the United States on a purchasing power parity basis, while the economy of India will approach that of Germany. The World Bank has estimated that today’s developing nations may account for more than 60 percent of world economic activity by 2020, while today’s rich nations, which currently account for more than 55 percent of world economic activity, may account for only about 38 percent. Forecasts are not always correct, but these


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