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2020年国产胰岛素龙头企业通化东宝专题研究:三代胰岛素期待后来居上,甘精胰岛素有望打破僵局
内容目录
前言:论通化东宝的投资逻辑..................................................................................................................................6一、国产胰岛素龙头企业,十余年沉淀铸就辉煌.......................................................................................................7
1.1从0到1,国产胰岛素先行者.....................................................................................................................71.2管理层更新换代,推动公司再启程..............................................................................................................81.3历史财务表现优秀,近两年波动后酝酿再加速............................................................................................10二、糖尿病是全球性问题,我国糖尿病用药市场规模达千亿.....................................................................................12
2.1糖尿病是三大全球性慢病杀手之一,影响4.6亿人.....................................................................................122.2我国糖尿病患病人数居全球首位,糖尿病用药市场规模近700亿................................................................172.3胰岛素存量市场规模266亿元,潜在规模近700亿元.................................................................................19三、胰岛素国产替代趋势明显,基层优势助力东宝突围...........................................................................................19
3.1国内胰岛素市场外企优势明显,国内企业正在崛起.....................................................................................193.2多年累积规模化生产优势,胰岛素产能处于一线梯队..................................................................................213.3终端营销优势明显,客户粘性强................................................................................................................223.4深挖基层,打造胰岛素产品“农村包围城市”................................................................................................23
3.4.1基层成为药企业绩增长的发力点......................................................................................................233.4.2通化东宝基层渗透优势明显,未来增长可期.....................................................................................243.5“你的医生”打造糖尿病整体解决方案..........................................................................................................243.6糖尿病医疗器械助力治疗一体化服务.........................................................................................................25四、二代胰岛素稳定过渡,基层市场一定空间.........................................................................................................26
4.1二代胰岛素在基层仍有优势,东宝地位稳固...............................................................................................264.2全国覆盖面广,多地优势明显...................................................................................................................284.3公司二代胰岛素仍有增长空间...................................................................................................................29五、三代胰岛素期待后来居上,甘精胰岛素有望打破僵局........................................................................................30
5.1三代替代二代是全球趋势..........................................................................................................................305.2甘精胰岛素市场空间巨大,竞争格局好......................................................................................................315.3东宝独特优势,甘精有望后发先至............................................................................................................335.4东宝甘精有望成为10亿级别产品,加速业绩增长......................................................................................34六、研发管线优秀,潜能即将释放.........................................................................................................................35
6.1胰岛素组合拳即将成型,不断提升战斗力..................................................................................................356.2切入GLP-1和糖尿病口服药继续拓展市场..................................................................................................37七、武汉试点胰岛素带量招标短期内更多是象征意义...............................................................................................40八、盈利预测.......................................................................................................................................................41风险提示..............................................................................................................................................................43
图表目录
图表1:通化东宝大事记.........................................................................................................................................7图表2:公司主营业务收入占比...............................................................................................................................7图表3:公司主营业务毛利润占比............................................................................................................................7图表4:股权结构及主要参控股公司.........................................................................................................................8图表5:2019年末通化东宝主要参控股公司情况......................................................................................................9图表6